December 2025
2026 Oil Trading Market and Compensation Outlook
Oil trading in 2025 has been shaped by changing hiring trends and shifting market behaviour, and we see no signs of that stopping in 2026. With firms increasingly prioritising traders who pair strong commercial instincts with technical fluency due to margin pressures and global flows shifting. Trading desks that invest early in senior talent, develop hybrid skills, and robust AI governance, will be best positioned to outperform in 2026.
Market conditions and trading behaviour in 2025
2025 brought another year of sharp price swings. OPEC+ changed production quotas several times and tension in the Middle East pushed Brent prices higher than Dubai crude. This widened the Brent to Dubai spread to more than 4 USD. The wider spread created obvious arbitrage for crude and product traders, especially those who understand flow economics and react fast. Teams with slow or rigid processes struggled to adapt.
Demand patterns also changed. Europe continued to soften which reduced product clarity and weakened refinery margins. Asia strengthened and pulled more barrels east. This forced traders to rethink freight, storage, and financing. The desks that performed best were those with broad global reach and the ability to work across multiple product chains.
Geopolitics created short windows of volatility. Sanctions, outages, and shipping disruption triggered quick price movements that rewarded traders who rely on fundamentals, not single-signal decision making. Many firms reviewed their risk controls and moved toward integrated desk structures. Merging crude, products, LNG, and biofuels helped them make faster decisions and capture more margin across the barrel.
Hiring trends followed the patterns of firms aggressively competing for senior traders with strong P&L, with guaranteed packages increased by roughly 15% to 20%, and counter offers becoming routine. Specialists in arbitrage and blending gained the most leverage because their strategies delivered consistent returns throughout the year, and junior hiring narrowed to graduates with coding and analytics skills.
Loyalty also weakened, with traders moving more frequently in search of broader mandates, stronger guarantees, and greater flexibility. Federico Baker, an Associate Vice President at Selby Jennings, explains more:
The market keeps paying for skills it failed to build. When firms underinvest in development, they pay twice. First through rising guarantees, and then through higher churn when traders move for better progression. Many firms are learning that retention starts with capability, not compensation.
Key points from 2025
- Traders with broad product coverage delivered stronger results
- Technical capability separated stable desks from weaker ones
- Churn increased as guaranteed pay rose
- Integrated desk structures continued to gain traction
Strategic drivers for firms in 2026
Price forecasts for 2026 point lower, with WTI expected in the USD 49 to 57 range. This signals tighter margins and fewer natural profit opportunities. Firms will rely on traders who can read market structure, manage uncertainty, and operate across multiple product chains.
Hiring senior traders early will remain a priority. The pool of proven crude and product arbitrage specialists is small, and most are already embedded in high-performing teams. Firms that wait until late Q1 will face limited availability and higher salary expectations.
Pipeline development will matter more than ever. Graduate programs are shifting toward hybrid roles that combine commercial judgment with coding, analytics, and risk modeling. Lateral hiring cannot meet these needs at scale. Strong pipelines also support retention by offering clearer career paths and broader development options.
AI governance is now a baseline requirement. Models influence scheduling, exposure decisions, and optimization, and regulators expect clear documentation and controls. Traders need to understand how models work, where they break down, and how to challenge outputs. Federico made the point clearly:
AI will not replace traders, but it will expose the ones who never understood their own risk. The traders who thrive will be the ones who know when to trust the model, when to push back, and how to explain their decisions. Firms that treat AI as a shortcut rather than a tool will fall behind fast.
Retention will sit at the centre of performance. Traders want broader mandates, clear progression, and access to product areas that interest them. Firms that rely only on salary or brand reputation will lose staff. Multi-year guarantees and structured sign-on packages will remain part of the retention approach.
Mandates will continue to widen. Biofuels, carbon credits, and LNG will take up a larger share of P and L as regulation and demand shift across markets. Traders who understand these areas will move faster than those who stay focused only on crude.
Focus areas for firms
- Secure senior hires early
- Build hybrid graduate programs
- Strengthen AI documentation and oversight
- Expand product coverage
- Use career progression as a retention lever
Skill development and mobility requirements
Technical fluency now sits at the core of trading roles. Python, SQL, and risk tools are becoming standard. Traders who cannot work directly with data lose speed and depend on others for insight. Firms want tighter workflows with fewer handoffs.
Mandate breadth supports mobility and career stability. Traders who understand crude, products, biofuels, and carbon can move across desks and adapt as markets shift. Integrated teams value this flexibility.
Geographic mobility remains a major lever.
- London, Geneva, and Dubai continue to dominate global oil trading
- Singapore is rising quickly due to strong demand growth across Asia
AI literacy matters at all seniority levels. Traders need to understand how models behave, how signals affect exposure, and how to challenge flawed outputs. This is not about advanced engineering. It is about judgment, logic, and risk awareness.
Skills that gain the most value
- Coding fundamentals
- Cross product knowledge
- Data interpretation
- Risk modeling
- Global flow understanding
How AI will reshape trading roles in 2026
AI will handle routine hedging, scheduling, and optimisation. Execution only roles will shrink as firms expect traders to operate at a strategic level, not simply book trades. Automation will raise efficiency, but cannot replace judgment across logistics, geopolitics, or refinery behaviour.
Hybrid profiles will continue to grow. These traders combine physical market insight, data skills, and algorithmic thinking. They align with how modern trading teams operate and often progress faster because they add value across multiple areas.
Model oversight roles will expand. These positions test model behaviour, validate signals, and support compliance. They sit between trading, risk, and technology teams.
Human judgment remains essential. AI adds speed and scale, but cannot replace commercial instinct. Federico summarised the shift clearly.
AI lifts the floor and raises the ceiling. It raises the baseline for the whole desk, but it also widens the gap between the traders who rely on instinct and the traders who understand how to turn data into decisions. The future belongs to those who can do both.
AI-driven changes
- Less routine execution work
- Growth in hybrid trading roles
- More oversight roles focused on model integrity
- Higher emphasis on strategic judgment
Compensation outlook for 2026
Years of service
- 5 to 7 years - 150,000 to 200,000
- 7 to 10 years - 180,000 to 250,000
- 10 to 15 years - 225,000 to 300,000
- 15+ years - 275,000 to 350,000
- Head of Trading - 350,000+
Years of service
- 5 to 7 years - £125,000 to £175,000
- 7 to 10 years - £150,000 to £200,000
- 10 to 15 years - £175,000 to £250,000
- 15+ years - £200,000 to £250,000
- Head of Trading - £250,000+
Years of service
- 5 to 7 years - €110,000 to €160,000
- 7 to 10 years - €140,000 to €190,000
- 10 to 15 years - €175,000 to €225,000
- 15+ years - €200,000 to €250,000
- Head of Trading - €250,000+
Bonuses remain highly variable
- Discretionary structures are still common, but not competitive.
- Multipliers often range from 50% to 500%.
- P&L linked bonuses usually sit between 8% and 15%.
- Senior leaders often reach 1 to 5 million EUR total compensation with stock or equity.
Risks shaping the year ahead
Margin compression will reduce natural trading opportunities and put pressure on team design. ESG and AI regulation will intensify, which increases the need for clear controls and strong documentation. The market will continue to face a shortage of hybrid commercial-technical traders, and firms that delay upgrades to training, governance, and mandate flexibility risk losing talent to desks that adapt faster.
Selby Jennings supports firms through these shifts by helping them secure senior hires early, build hybrid talent pipelines, and structure hiring strategies that reflect real market conditions. Our team tracks compensation, skill trends, and mobility patterns across all major hubs so clients can make confident hiring decisions.
If you are building your trading team or planning senior hires for 2026, request a call back and a specialist consultant will follow up directly.
Partner with Selby Jennings Today
With a proven track record, dedication to client satisfaction, and unwavering commitment, we are the trusted recruitment partner for leading institutions worldwide. Complete the form to discuss your recruitment needs, and one of our specialist consultants will be in touch.